M E's ground zero

(Thanks to TODAY)
The middle east’s ground zero
Gaza faces region’s three great struggles
Friday • January 9, 2009, TODAY (off NYT)
THOMAS L FRIEDMAN

THE fighting, death and destruction in Gaza is painful to watch. But it’s all too familiar. It’s the latest version of the longest-running play in the modern Middle East, which, if I were to give it a title, would be called: "Who owns this hotel? Can the Jews have a room? And shouldn’t we blow up the bar and replace it with a mosque?"

That is, Gaza is a mini-version of three great struggles that have been playing out since 1948:
1) Who is going to be the regional superpower — Egypt? Saudi Arabia? Iran?
2) Should there be a Jewish state in the Middle East and, if so, on what Palestinian terms? And 3) Who is going to dominate Arab society —
Islamists who are intolerant of other faiths and want to choke off modernity or
modernists who want to embrace the future, with an Arab-Muslim face?

WHO OWNS THIS HOTEL?

The struggle for hegemony over the modern Arab world is as old as former President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt.

But what is new today is that non-Arab Iran is now making a bid for primacy — challenging Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran has deftly used military aid to both Hamas and Hezbollah to create a rocket-armed force on Israel’s northern and western borders.

This enables Tehran to stop and start the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at will and to paint itself as the true protector of the Palestinians.

CAN THE JEWS HAVE A ROOM HERE?

Hamas rejects any recognition of Israel. By contrast, the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, has recognized Israel — and vice versa. If you believe, as I do, that the only stable solution is a two-state one, with the Palestinians getting all of the West Bank, Gaza and Arab sectors of East Jerusalem, then you have to hope for the weakening of Hamas.

SHOULDN’T we REPLACE the bar WITH A MOSQUE?

Hamas’s overthrow of the more secular Fatah organisation in Gaza in 2007 is part of a regionwide civil war between Islamists and modernists. In the week that Israel has been slicing through Gaza, Islamist suicide bombers have killed almost 100 Iraqis.

Gaza today is basically ground zero for all three of these struggles, said Martin Indyk, the former Clinton administration’s Middle East adviser whose book, Innocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Diplomacy in the Middle East was just published.

"This tiny little piece of land, Gaza, has the potential to blow all of these issues wide open and present a huge problem for Barack Obama on Day 1."

Mr Obama’s great potential for America, noted Mr Indyk, is also a great threat to Islamist radicals — because his narrative holds tremendous appeal for Arabs. For eight years Hamas, Hezbollah and Al Qaeda have been surfing on a wave of anti-United States anger generated by George W Bush.

No doubt, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are hoping they can use the Gaza conflict to turn Obama into Bush. They know Barack Hussein Obama must be (am)Bushed — to keep America and its Arab allies on the defensive.

Mr Obama has to keep his eye on the prize. His goal — America’s goal — has to be a settlement in Gaza that eliminates the threat of Hamas rockets and opens Gaza economically to the world, under credible international supervision. That’s what will serve US interests, moderate the three great struggles and earn him respect.